Computex 2024 reflections: AI PC outlook

Despite all the recent hype around the AI PC at Computex and other events, even the most optimistic observers do not expect the launch of this new category of devices to have much of an impact on PC sales volumes this year.

IDC, for example, forecasts that the desktop and notebook PC market will remain flat at around 260 million units, with anemic growth of 2.6% in international markets including the US and Europe being offset by continued declines in China. When pressed, most industry analysts and vendor spokespeople say that it won’t be until the end of 2024 or early 2025 that meaningful AI PC sales volumes will kick in.

One of the key challenges the industry faces in generating demand for AI PCs is the lack of compelling use cases. Despite extensive efforts to engage software developers by Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD, no killer AI PC apps have yet appeared. While instant image generation and real-time meeting transcriptions may be useful features, they are nowhere near enough to move the needle.

Despite all the recent hype around the AI PC at Computex and other events, even the most optimistic observers do not expect the launch of this new category of devices to have much of an impact on PC sales volumes this year.

IDC, for example, forecasts that the desktop and notebook PC market will remain flat at around 260 million units, with anemic growth of 2.6% in international markets including the US and Europe being offset by continued declines in China. When pressed, most industry analysts and vendor spokespeople say that it won’t be until the end of 2024 or early 2025 that meaningful AI PC sales volumes will kick in.

One of the key challenges the industry faces in generating demand for AI PCs is the lack of compelling use cases. Despite extensive efforts to engage software developers by Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD, no killer AI PC apps have yet appeared. While instant image generation and real-time meeting transcriptions may be useful features, they are nowhere near enough to move the needle.

Even the promise of over twenty hours of battery life for the first wave of CoPilot+ PCs powered by the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite processor may not prove that attractive to anyone except the most hardened road warriors given that people have become used to handling their email and participating in conference calls with their smartphones when they are away from their desks. Nice to have, of course, but not essential.

Sales of AI PCs will no doubt start to gather momentum once laptops featuring Intel Lunar Lake and AMD Ryzen AI 300 series processors receive CoPilot+ PC certification, probably in Q4 this year. In addition to increasing the number of models on the market to well over a hundred compared to 22 today, it will also make the devices more attractive to corporate buyers concerned about potential compatibility issues for Windows on Arm systems.

For all the industry talk about the transformational potential of the AI PC, it is still a long way from reaching prime time.